Ruh-Roh… Polls Overestimated Obama's Strength By Average of 7 Percentage Points This Year
Here’s something the Obamatrons to chew on for the next 15 days…
Polls this year have overestimated Obama’s strength in 18 of 20 states by an average of 7%.
Ace of Spades and The Politico reported:
In theory, exit polls should match election results. But for all the care that goes into conducting accurate exit polls, errant results aren’t completely uncommon. Respected polling analyst Mark Blumenthal found that during the Democratic primaries this year, preliminary exit polls overestimated Obama’s strength in 18 of 20 states, by an average error of 7 percentage points, based on leaked early results.
The reason? Obama’s supporters were younger, better educated and often more enthusiastic than Hillary Clinton’s, meaning they were more likely to participate in exit polls.
Jim Geraghty sees a tight race likely going to McCain-Palin.
Joshua also linked to this post by DJ Drummond at Stolen Thunder on bogus liberal polls.