By the Numbers=> Donald Trump’s Victory in New York Will Be Beginning of the End for Ted Cruz
Guest post by Joe Hoft
Trump Leads in Wins, Delegates and Popular Vote
According to Real Clear Politics,as of April 10 in the Republican Presidential race, Donald Trump is way ahead of Senator Cruz in wins, delegates and the popular vote.
(Chart by Joe Hoft)
Trump currently has twice as many wins as Cruz, and nearly one and half times as many delegates and popular votes as Cruz. What is really telling is the difference in primary wins. Primaries are where every vote is counted and thus appear more democratic than caucuses where all sorts of irregularities can take place. Trump has 17 primary wins to Cruz’s 4.
Cruz has only nine wins total and five are caucuses where Cruz has gained 177 delegates to Trumps 96. It’s clear Cruz has benefited from caucus indiscretions which according to some are a pattern of his campaign.
The only reports of voter scandal in this campaign have been with the Cruz camp, including saying Carson was dropping out of the race before the Iowa caucus and in manipulating and stealing delegates after primaries take place.
Trump will Blow Away Cruz after New York
New York State Poll Numbers from Real Clear Politics as of April 10
Currently Trump is polling greater than 54% in New York. The state primary held on April 19th allocates 14 out of 95 delegates to the overall winner. The winner in each congressional district takes 3 delegates if he wins over 50% of the vote in the district while a candidate must clear 20% of the vote in order to win any delegates in a district.
It is clear Trump will win the 14 statewide delegates but what is yet unclear is the number of delegates Trump will win in each congressional district as well as whether Cruz will win any delegates at all based on his current poll numbers being less than 20% . Assuming Trump wins the 14 statewide delegates and conservatively 2 delegates from each of the 27 districts, with Cruz and Kasich splitting the remaining 27, Trump would end up with 68 delegates, Kasich 14 and Cruz 13. These are conservative numbers for Trump as he will most likely win more than 50% of the vote in many districts and therefore all 3 delegates. This is also generous towards Ted Cruz who isn’t even at 20% of the vote statewide and has to have at least 20% of the votes and more than Kasich with Trump not gaining 50% in any district to gain a delegate.
Only 190,000 voted in the 2012 New York state Republican primary. This low voter turnout was due in part to Romney running away with the race but turnouts have been very high in 2016 in large part due to Donald Trump. In the general election Romney gained more than 2 million New York votes. If we assume conservatively that Trump gains a half a million votes in the Republican primary which is about half of what he gained in Florida and Cruz gains the number of votes proportionally based on current poll numbers, Trump will have accumulated nearly 9 million votes to date in the election cycle.
After New York State GOP Primary
(Chart by Joe Hoft)
Cruz Exit Strategy
After the New York primary, based on today’s numbers and polling data, Trump will have a nearly 5 to 1 ratio over Cruz in primaries. Trump will have 150% of the number of delegates as Ted Cruz. He will have amassed nearly 150% of the number of votes as Cruz.
With the following week having primaries in five more East Coast states, it will be time for Cruz to begin his exit strategy. Cruz will be unable to win the Republican nomination outright after April 26th. He will need more delegates than are available and Trump will have a nearly 6 to 1 ratio over Cruz in primaries. Trump also will have won more than half of the 50 state’s contests and nearly two and a half times that of Cruz.
The longer Cruz hangs on after the April primaries the more dissatisfied Republican voters will be with Cruz. Calls will come for Cruz to resign and the voters will show their disgust. Cruz’s strategy of taking the election from a popular candidate, who will have won nearly six times the number of primaries as he, will become unreasonable and classless.
If Cruz (or anyone else for that matter) were to take the election from Trump at a convention it will be impossible for Cruz to sway the votes of people in his own party, yet alone Independents and Democrats, after having stolen the election in such a circus. The attacks on Cruz by the media will replicate those of Trump attackers and the election will fall to either Sanders or Clinton.
Smart conservative Cruz backers like Mark Levin are hopefully beginning to realize that for the good of the party and the country, and to win the overall election, the best thing Cruz can do is step out of the race and be a graceful supporter of the eventual Republican candidate, Donald Trump.
From that point on the call should be #NeverHillary!